 |
| Scavello nearly impossible to beat |
According to the latest from WFMZ, Aurand was pulling away at 11 pm with 41% to Parsons' 36% and One Vote Joe's anemic 23%
Some say that Aurand supporters encouraged Capozzolo to run, flattering him and appealing to his ego. By any logical analysis, he had no business running. Just two years ago, he was crushed by an arrogant and cocky state rep. He raised no money. Did he honestly think he'd do better against a Republican moderate who is actually admired? So did he run this race, knowing he'd lose and that he was playing the spoiler, because someone promised him something?
One Vote Joe has demonstrated a lack of integrity. In 2003, he pleaded "no contest" to vandalizing a school board candidate's signs. He's never won any race outside Bangor, and his one vote margin there is laughable.
Had One Vote Joe stayed out of this race, Parsons would be the victor tonight. Scott would have had a fighting chance against Scavello. I admire Aurand's honesty and intelligence, bit he will have a much harder time against Scavello. In fact, I think the race is already over.
Why? He's been running for two years. He has lots of money to spend. His positions are fairly moderate on most issues. He's not some whack job that can be defined as an extremist. He has run successfully for may years in a district that was 63% Democratic. Most importantly, he works his ass off, taking nothing for granted.
On Saturday, this Monroe County resident found the time to attend Hanover Township's Armed Forces Day Program. At 10 am, it was his third stop that morning, I later learned.
Updated 10:30 am: In Northampton County, Parsons won the race. He attracted 2205 votes, which put him ahead of Aurand (1927) and Capozzolo (1210). He lost in Monroe. Aurand finished there with 2185 to Parson's 1443 and Capozzolo's 1054. Capozzolo tapped into Parsons' base.
Come on Bernie try to get a grip. First off none of these charismatic negatives would beat Mario.
ReplyDeleteDespite the fact that Barney Rubble is your newest political creamsycle, having a well spoken attorney as your candidate is a better chance than Joey Capo or Scotty little bigman Parsons.
How do you think Parsons overblown ego will handle this.
Sounds like you need to a little more homework on Monroe politics. Scavello has won by appealing to Democrats at home, voting like a John Bircher in Harrisburg, then hiding it when he comes home. Oh, and repeatedly promising lower property taxes. Those'll arrive about as soon as the long promised train to NYC. You wildly overestimate the appeal of a NYer from the Bronx in the Slate Belt. Take a look at his record. He's against abortion even in cases of rape & incest. He supports a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He supports vouchers for private schools. Never met a union he didn't despise. Yup, he's a moderate all right. A regular Charlie Dent clone. He'll fit right in in the NORCO GOP establishment. Lemme know how that works out.
ReplyDelete" He's against abortion even in cases of rape & incest. He supports a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He supports vouchers for private schools. Never met a union he didn't despise. Yup, he's a moderate all right. A regular Charlie Dent clone. He'll fit right in in the NORCO GOP"
ReplyDeleteYou are right he will. I didn't know all that. Hell even the slate belt Dem's will support him with that platform. But you keep smoking your old Obama peace pipe and we can all toast Mario on his big win this November. With that record he will sweep the slate belt.
You guys are really smoking some wild stuff in that pie.
ReplyDeleteYour assessment of the situation is very astute. Walt Garvin also should shoulder some responsibility here too for this mess along with those Dem's who continue to back loser's. This should never have happened and Scott deserved a better fate. Will the state D party actually bank roll Aurand? We'll see..
Joe Cap is the biggest joke in local politics- He had absolutely no chance. I'm sure he's now on Mario's Christmas list..
ReplyDeleteNominating an Allentown lawyer who can't name a single Monroe County municipality should go well in the fall. Your assessment is dead on. Parsons would have been far more formidable.
ReplyDeleteScott did deserve a better fate. Beyond bummed.....
ReplyDeleteParsons would have been better, but Corbett is going to get crushed at the top of the ticket and Scavello will still have to overcome Wolf's coattails.
ReplyDeleteJust hope Aurand finds time for a shave before November election.
ReplyDelete"Sounds like you need to a little more homework on Monroe politics. Scavello has won by appealing to Democrats at home, voting like a John Bircher in Harrisburg, then hiding it when he comes home."
ReplyDeleteAttempts to paint a moderate as a conservative are usually unsuccessful, especially when done by OFA. It has never worked against Dent. It ends up making people feel sorry for the person vilified. The fact that you bring this our shows you are tone deaf to how people think.
He has weaknesses, like the rising gas tax and our educational system. But unless you are a blue collar type yourself, you won't see that and will instead rant about abortion.
Political newcomers scored big yesterday..Wolf and Aurand. A trend perhaps? Not sure what it means but maybe people are tired of the gridlock and want some new faces/ideas to emerge. Even if you split up evenly what Cap got..Aurand still wins. He must have done a whale of a job in Monroe county convincing the locals. He will need to do more of the same come Fall.
ReplyDeleteYou just did a math exercise that would be known from the start. If x is greater than y, and you add 50 to x and to y, x will still be greater than y.
ReplyDeleteMy point is that Capozzolo voters would have otherwise gone to Parsons, especially in Northampton County. Without Capozzolo in this race, Parsons wins.
I agree that the hit Joe imflicted on Scott's vote totals was significant and totally uncalled for. I'm just wondering if in hindsight Scott should have challenged Joe's petition signatures. Maybe this would have turned out different? I wonder what elected position Joe will run for next?
ReplyDeleteBernie,
ReplyDeleteI like you, I really do. But you couldn't be more off base about Mario Scavello being unbeatable. Scavello has long enjoyed a base in Monroe County, that never needed to hear debates. He never was part of them. Mainly because his "far right-wing" agenda would be exposed to show he is no moderate.
Instead, the mainly NY transplant base reads the NY Daily News & NY Post. They watch NYC TV on their dishes, and proclaim he is their guy because he has his office staff call them on their birthdays to say "Happy birthday, from Mario Scavello". (Tax payer funded campaigning?)
Do you think the LV voters are so idiotic, they will be happy to have no debates? I think not. Scavello for the first time in ages will actually have to expose himself to the public. It is only maatter of time before his nasty personality is seen, where he yells in the face of women who oppose him on election day and are campaigning for his opponent. He might have gotten away with that behavior in Mt. Pocono and it's population of 3K. That ain't gonna fly in Northampton County where an actual reporter will mention this.
Also, it is just a matter of time before his behind the scenes involvement with the Pocono Mountain Regional Police Commission comes to light. Where to help his buddy "Fran" from Tunkhannock Township & Chief Harry "Where's my gun" Lewis. Scavello behind the scenes worked over political supporters and officials to rig the commission to prevent Chief Lewis, a South Whitehall Township resident, from losing his job over the gun he allowed to be stolen from his un-locked police vehicle in his Lehigh County driveway. That tax payer owned gun was sold on the streets of Allentown and remains unaccounted for.
Scavello got one of his biggest political supporters appointed from one municipality and saw one of Lewis biggest critics from another municipality was NOT re-appointed.
This comes from highly reliable inside sources. This is not mere speculation. This comes from people on the commission (and formerly on) in the know directly.
PMRP are the most sued PD in the area, most of it having nothing to do with arrests, but poor labor operations. Accusations of hostile work environments for women, etc. A department that some nights has just two officers on the street covering four municipalities (Monroe County 911 logs show this for those nights, while not every night, they happen more than they should). A department that punishes an officer who posted critical remarks on his personal Facebook page, while off-duty about the insanely high salary Lewis recently got ($95K before benefits).
As well as questions of where police officers' pension money is really going. And why the PMRP Charity's PR head's husband is also paid as an investigator for PMRP in cases of officer conduct. This is what Scavello is behind the scenes trying to preserve.
Add to that, Scavello's un-ethical calling of a judge to directly try and sway a court case over the Pocono Mountain School District,it quickly becomes questionable just how "moderate" and "Un-beatable" Scavello is. Perhaps a bottom feeding blogger, two newspapers, and an actual over-the-air TV station will force the "REAL MARIO" to be shown to the public.
Just another power hungry political insider, who will do anything to gain more power and support, no matter who is ruined in the process.
Maybe, just maybe, One-Vote Joe didn't cause Parsons to lose. Maybe, using Fleck to run an arrogant campaign was. Since Fleck was convinced they would "cream" everyone.
Sheriff, Thank you for your comment. It is chock full of criticisms of Scavello that may or may not have merit. I hope to be able to sit down with Mr. Scavello at some point between now and November and address these criticisms. As you know there is more than one side to every story. What I find interesting is that you praise Northhampton County voters and bash Monroe County voters. Aurand won in Monroe and lost Northampton.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any evidence that Capozzolo pulled votes away from Parsons.
ReplyDeleteThe problem, by my way of looking at the numbers, is that Parsons is the only candidate to have lost substantial amount of support in Monroe County. There's your loss right there. And a candidate who can't pull strong support from Monroe will end up getting spanked by Scavello in the General Election.
Frederic, your point makes sense, too.
ReplyDeleteI had concerns about Scott's position on the ballot. A straight lever puller would automatically have pulled Aurand.
ReplyDeleteI should add that I think Sheriff Taylor's points about the PMRPD deliberations about Lewis' gun are nonsense. Mario had nothing to do with it. And the re-appointments occurred after the Commission made their decision.
ReplyDeleteThere are lots of reasons to oppose Mario Scavello in November. Spreading breathless rumors in lieu of actual stances on the issues isn't going to help defeat him. Such things have, in the past, actually helped Scavello in the past by revealing his opponents to be more interested in conspiracy than day-to-day issues.
I think sheriff's comments are on the mark. While I do think Parsons had the better chance Scavello is no lock. He's a backstabber. Ask Joe Battisto and John Siptroth. If the senate democrats target this race and they may well do it Scavello's weaknesses and phoney front will be exposed and if Joe Battisto is healthy enough and Boscola helps Scavello can be beaten.
ReplyDeleteWow I love the parson apologists. The guy gets to county council because he ran against Ron Angle who beat himself, no explanation needed. Just about any one would have beat Angle. then Parsons decides he is a state senator. he got beat by a better candidate.
ReplyDeleteParsons complained in the newspaper that he just didn't get the Dem turnout. What the hell des that mean in a primary? Sounds like he had Johnny Casino's
script.
the guy is a Barney Rubble of ego. he felt the Republicans should have made him President of county council.
Time for him to asses his situation and get comfortable at the quarry. His big political payday is not happening. Also stop whining Scott.
I respect the Mayor. I could be wrong, but wasn't Lewis under a binding contract at the time of the gun incident? Then the appointments came. Then, the new contract. Hence the heated meeting where he got a new one, with all votes from people who can be easily connected to Scavello.
ReplyDeleteThe new Commission rammed through (IMO) the new contracts (and I've never left a meeting so pissed, frankly, as the one that evening). This had nothing to do with Mario Scavello, however, and everything to do with the Chief's own supporters who seemed oblivious that a three-year contract would look like it was a reward to the Chief. Mario has been very hands off on the Commission, and I believe that his eyes are largely elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteI think it is easy to fall into the trap of believing that Scavello is a puppetmaster. This will not serve Democrats well in November, however. If you want to defeat Mario Scavello, his actual stands on the issues have largely been unexplored by his political opponents. I don't think Mark Aurand will make that mistake.
Whining is one thing that you will not hear Parsons do 4:06. Dignifying your post with a response is 1 minute of my life that I can never get back....
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with C. You might say I was whining, but Parsons is better than that.
ReplyDeleteWish I had the ability "like" posts.
ReplyDeleteI've only had the opportunity meet Scott Parsons once, and he struck me as a real stand up guy. A working class man, who would look you straight in the eye when talking. I wouldn't characterize anything Scott said in the campaign as "whining."
Very nicely put. Scott and Aurand are both classy guys. I suspect the not-so-classy anonymous shot comes from the kind of person who would get caught defacing campaign signs.
ReplyDeleteRight on Bernie, joe capozzolo defaced his own relatives sign- so I wouldn't put it past him to trash Scott Parsons anonymously.
ReplyDeleteLet's suppose for a moment that the era of slick politicians who bully their opponents and everyone else who opposes them is over. Let's imagine the good people of Monroe County after a decade have woken up to the fact that Mario Scavello has largely been an ineffective legislator in Harrisburg and we are no longer going to be placated with small scholarships,free notary services, and birthday phone calls. Let's also suppose that the good people of NORCO have a long memory and understand that Mario Scavello has not been their friend over the past decade. Speaking often and loudly about not sharing casino profits with Northampton. Scott Parsons,is a good guy who I enjoyed meeting and spending time with during the primary season. He is, however,"Mario light". He was a Republican for many years and doesn't passionately articulate the Democratic message. Mark Aurand is a Democrat and he won by having a great ground game and being right on the issues that are near and dear to Democrats who by the way, are the majority in Monroe County. After a "Decade of Excuses" Democrats no longer take Mario Scavello seriously when he talks about property tax reduction, funding education, and creating jobs. Over the past four years we witnessed his record of voting for draconian budget cuts to education, siding with Corbet and refusing to properly tax natural gas to benefit the people of the common wealth,and backing the now defunct Voter ID bill. Mark Aurand can beat Mario Scavello. The Monroe County Democrats worked along side him in the primary and will give 110% in the general. Republicans have had a strong hold on Monroe County for the past decade and failed us miserably. It's time for change and the Democrats of Monroe County are going to have their voices heard this November.
ReplyDeleteMario will beat Aurand. He would have beat either Parsons or Cappozzolo by even a greater margin as neither have very good brain functions.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrats best chance is with the intelligent, well-spoken attorney who can actually form a sentence but they will still come up short.
Parsons is no state senator. He can barely comprehend county issues.
ReplyDeleteHe and Werner are real bookends on county council.
Scavello is certainly scared. No how I know that? Simple, he bloviated about how he was afraid he couldn't beat Scott, but he wasn't afraid of Mark. Everything that comes out of his mouth is a twisted lie, so of course he is terrified now.
ReplyDeleteHe now will go into hiding, as he did when Maureen ran against him, because people will see what a small minded man who only gets anywhere by handing out petty change bribes and bullying people. Maybe that will work again this time, but I doubt it since he has Northampton County people and he hasn't had time to buy them all off.
He is Gov Crooked's man in Harrisburg and now he has to run on his record of voting for everything from the unConstitutional Act 13 to the unConstitutional Voter ID law. And the vaginal probe law. And then there's the lawsuit against himself to force the state to fund public school education. And the fact he tells everyone he supports HB76 while telling other people it never stood a chance. Where is pension reform? Where is tax reform? Where are the jobs? Where is all the revenue the state has lost? He and his buddy Corbett have been in complete power for 3 1/2 years so none of this he can blame on Rendell, though he will do it anyway because it is all he has. In other words Scavello has nothing.
"Parsons is no state senator. He can barely comprehend county issues."
ReplyDeleteHe does just fine. It pains me bc he beat my good friend, but Scott Parsons is very good on Council, understands the issues and your comment is complete nonsense. Werrner wears the suits and carries all kinds of notes and tries to ask hard questions, but he lacks the intelligence he thinks he has, and has a mean streak i saw exhibited at a meeting in which he attacked Don Cunningham, John Brown, Steve DeSalva and Hayden Phillips. On all counts he was wrong. In fact, i question his mental stability after seeing that display.
It will be close but with Wolf at the top of the ticket Scavello will lose especially if Aurand gets HB support. Too bad Grucela chose to stay retired he would have beaten Scavello handily. The race may come down to the "R's" in Northampton County voting for the home county
ReplyDeleteThere are 2 penis size legends in these parts. Most know of the tic tac sized infant penis that Ohare hides. The other is the large male member of the italian stallion Joe Cap. B.O. is very jealous of the Capster in the groin dept. The ladies quiver when Joe walks in, they become queasy when Ohare slinks by.
ReplyDeleteAnd Cap was the only candidate with hair!
Mr. O'Hare, Your analysis presumes that the Slate Belt is the population center of this district. It isn't. Parson's 4th Council/Slate Belt District only constitutes 27% of the 40th senate district's population. Monroe County comprises 54% of the district's population. East Stroudsburg, Stroudsburg, and Stroud Township are larger than the entire Bangor & Pen Argyl School districts combined. This should have been apparent to Parson's consultant long ago. It was clear that Monroe would determine the nominee. Of the 73% of the district NOT in the 4th district, Parsons only carried 2 municipalities, Bath Boro & Ross Twp in Monroe, which borders Wind Gap. Aurand swept the rest. Parsons should ask for his money back. The primary was decided by Monroe, along with the Nazareths, Forks, and Hanover. These locations will decide the general as well. His consultant should have been astute enough to see this. He was outplayed by volunteers.
ReplyDeleteWell darn. Some of us voted for Joe Cap so we could get us a real Mayor after he saunters off to Harrisburg to perform his favorite role-playing himself in "Much Ado About Nothing"
ReplyDelete