*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.I think he's wrong about Hispanics, youth and suburban moms.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Today's one-liner: "The shortest way to the distinguishing excellence of any writer is through his hostile critics." Richard LeGallienne
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Saturday, June 30, 2012
Las Vegas Oddsmaker: Romney in a Landslide
Before the Obamacare decision, Las Vegas oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root was picking Romney in a landslide, claiming it will be a Reagan-Carter redux.
31 comments:
You own views are appreciated, especially if they differ from mine. But remember, commenting is a privilege, not a right. I will delete personal attacks or off-topic remarks at my discretion. Comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation will be declined. So will comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence. If you attack someone personally, I expect you to identify yourself. I will delete criticisms of my comment policy, vulgarities, cut-and-paste jobs from other sources and any suggestion of violence towards anyone. I will also delete sweeping generalizations about mainstream parties or ideologies, i.e. identity politics. My decisions on these matters are made on a case by case basis, and may be affected by my mood that day, my access to the blog at the time the comment was made or other information that isn’t readily apparent.
YIKES, RUN FOR THE HILLS...
ReplyDeleteGOD HELP US ALL!!!
This author assumes the majority of folks are one issue voters. As a Catholic who votes, I am least persuaded by the Diocese FortNight campaign. I view it more as politically driven. I respect the Churches stand not to finance contraception benefits and effort to promote greater awareness of Religious liberties, however, I wish a similar campaign would have been championed to address Child abuse or the 49.9 Million Americans without healthcare of which 23 Million are Children. What about the 26,000 Americans that die prematurely each year because of the lack of medical treatment?
ReplyDeleteThere is no doubt that many Catholic women have undergone infertility treatments and have used contraceptive drugs as a means to treat medical conditions, sometimes in an effort to ultimately get pregnant. I have to believe that they never considered these acts ungodly and AND I firmly believe that they feel that children born as a result of such treatments ARE children of Gods making.
This GUY was a MISTAKE from the start.
ReplyDeleteThe sooner he's replaced as President, the better for our Country...the only thing that makes him look good is Biden..this guy can't find his way around the White house. The country was DUPED!
Wow, do you call the RNC or do they just text this shit to you directly. You may be getting a call from Roger Ailes.
ReplyDeleteAmen on this post!! Take it to the bank and lock it here and now. Romney in a landslide. Perhaps if Obamacare was thrown out, Obama may have been able to parlay that toward a win. Obamacare is now the law of the land and people will be afraid, really afraid. Already, older people are scheduling appointments for hips, knees and anything elective before they are repelled like Canadian and British medicine do. This years election will be amazing. The country is at a cross roads and the good people of the USA will turn away this move toward the left/social/commun...isms.
ReplyDeleteBlue collar workers traditionally make less money during republican administrations.
ReplyDeleteAnd to all the two toothed republican Pennsyltuckians out there- go ahead - Elect a corporate raider that became extra-wealthy by killing the middle class.
SURE, you're one of them.
Keep pretending to be millionaires
temporarily inconvienced by a bump in your financial status. You'll be back with the 1%'ers next year.
Romney will surely make it possible for you to recover all your lost wealth.
Now, local politics are different.....
Who ever wrote this is clearly a racist.
ReplyDeleteAllentown Democrat Voter
Spoken like a true socialist/communist! This spreading the wealth shit is for the dogs. Obama won because there were more takers than makers. We
Deletecannot afford 4 more years of this crap.
Anon 3:38, good post. The "isms" can kill you like Foxisms, Corporate raidersisms, etc..
ReplyDeleteIf and when the Democrats are able to get out a clear message on how this Bill will and is protecting young adults, the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, I can't wait for Mittens Romney to say, I will get rid of it. He plans to repeal and replace. You really think the American public is buying that?
The ACA may not be perfect but they know the Republican oligarchs have never wanted affordable health care just like they never wanted and still don't want Social Security and Medicare.
I believe when Romney is shown to be not just a guy who can send American jobs overseas and get paid for it, he is also the guy who will get rid of Social Security, Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, you may not get that landslide.
Obama may not be the best President by a long shot but fear of the teabagger backed Romney agenda to put the final nail in the American middle class will be strong.
Oh and remember, Obama got Osama Bin Laden and Romney said he wouldn't. Like many old timers say. Republicans start wars and the Democrats have to end. The chicken hawk party. Mittens screwed the pooch on that one.
Festus!
I DON'T
ReplyDeleteChief Justice Roberts just handed the election to Romney. Romney in a landslide. Glad to see you go BO. You make Jimmy Carter look good.
ReplyDeleteThe ONLY poll you can take to the bank, is the one in November. Don't take anything any political commentator says as the gospel truth. We'll see who the American people chooses after the election. Until then, weigh the pros and cons of each candidate and VP selection.
ReplyDeleteObama's under vote in the PA primary exceeded 10% in all but two counties. In some counties, the number was 30%- 60%. Obama won PA by 20 points last time around. He will likely win it again - but barely. If PA has gone from a +20 to a close call, this election is already Romney's.
ReplyDeleteThe Yale econometrics guy has Obama at 50.2%. The market reaction to the SCOTUS Obamacare tax will tip the scales.
The voters who care about abortion, contraception, Fast and Furious, gays in the military, Israel, Iran, global warming, carbon emissions, and race politics have made up their minds and are not in play.
The voters who are in play are turned off by all of the above and want the tanking economy turned around. It's the economy. Period.
Hey Barry, Go find another Country to ruin.....
ReplyDeleteObama is not the problem its the Congress -- D's and R's. They only care about their own re-election forever, not just for two terms. They refuse to make the tough decision this country needs. At least Obama takes a stand on an issue and tries to convince these people to vote on important legislation.
ReplyDeleteIn our country the real power is in the representatives. Yes, the Executive is our leader and is the face of the nation but without a congress willing to do something, he or she is helpless.
The R's in Congress just want to keep the unemployment rate high so voters don't vote for Obama. The D's in Congress don't want to be our in front of an issue and have their opponenets try and use it against them. So what happens? Nothing. The easiest way not to get blamed for something is to do nothing.
End result. The American public will recognize that Obama is doing the best any President can. We know what we have in him, but heaven help us we have no clue where Romeny is coming from. I predict Obama by 5 points.
Remember the ALAMO...
ReplyDeleteThe Alamo, I remember. That was the fight were Texas slave owners were fighting the Mexican government that had ended all slavery and demanded that the Texans, then still part of Mexico, free their slaves. The Texans refused and today we honor their memory.
ReplyDeleteAmerican History, the real story. Interesting, read it sometime.
Anon 2:04 There are not 49.9 million uninsured Americans. There are less than half that amount. Get some facts before posting. What does a Catholic see in Obama's stance on ANYTHING that would make you vote for him. Catholic social justice...grow up. This guy is the most pro-abortion, anti-Christian, anti-Jew, anti-white president in my lifetime.
ReplyDeleteCatholics, Jews, Blacks, and women all preferred Obama by big margins.
ReplyDeleteCatholics have been assigned a new Pope Katherine Sebelius who is redefining Catholicism so as not to offend liberals.
Jews will be redefined next. In the interim, the most anti-semetic administration since Roosevelt has abandoned, and is openly hostile to, Israel.
Blacks are experiencing their highest unemployment since Emancipation and are being told homosexual marriage is great, while they oppose it in much higher numbers than the majority national average.
Women are experiencing the worst of dragging unemployment and have recently been reduced to their vaginas and told they won't succeed without a life-long parade of government programs.
Despite all of the abuse inflicted upon these groups, they will return to their abuser, perhaps in slightly lower numbers. That's what the abused do.
They don't matter, however, as Independents will decide the election. That doesn't bode well for an incumbent running an economy into the ground.
I believe all we have done, is awaken a sleeping Giant!
ReplyDeleteNovember 6, 2012, the end of a nightmare!
You left out the most important info, what's the final spread and where can I take this bet?
ReplyDeleteI think I'd take that, too. I think the election is going to be close.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAmerica for Americans, If you don't love it, leave it.
ReplyDeleteI think the debates will determine who wins.Romney better have a huge lead pre debate because I believe Obama will make him look like a fool with his style and romneycare comparisons.
ReplyDeleteRepublicans don't like Mormons. They're not real Christians. Didn't Romney's grandfather have multiple wives and had to live in Mexico? I think the way Republicans put sex and religion above everything else this could make all this moot.
ReplyDeleteAnon 4:37 pm said, "Republicans start wars and the Democrats have to end."
ReplyDeleteHmm, over the last century:
World War I: Started under D, ended under same D.
World War II: Started under D, ended under D.
Korea: Started under D, ended under R.
Vietnam: Start could be argued as R or D (depending on which date you choose), ended under R.
Panama: Started under R, ended under same R.
Bosnia: Started under D, ended under same D.
Serbia: Started under D, ended under same D.
Kuwait/Iraq (Desert Storm): Started under R, ended under same R.
Afghanistan: Started under R, ongoing.
Iraq: Started under R, (mostly) ended under D.
This comment, aside from being poorly written (I believe "and" should have been "that"), is lacking in historical perspective. reality shows there is plenty of blood on the hands of both parties and no monopoly on cleaning up messes we get into.
Alan E.,
ReplyDeleteLeft out the little Reagan wars. Why are we not surprised. That is not nice prissy Alan.
Anon 2:39 pm,
ReplyDeleteOK, let's include:
Lebanon: Started before US involvement, ended long after US involvement ended; US participation started by R and ended by same R.
Grenada: Started by R, ended by same R.
I already listed Panama, which was under Reagan. What else did I miss?
Remember this is Wayne Allyn Root posting this. He's got his eye on the 2016 Libertarian ticket. Consider the source before declaring it gospel.
ReplyDeleteAbsurd. Root is a kook. Nate Silver's 538 has the race at 308.2 electoral votes for Obama, with 51.1% of the vote, and 229.8 for Romney, with 47.8%. Overall, 538 places Obama's chances of winning as on the rise at 74.8% and Romney's declining at 25.2%. Silver could be wrong on the specific numbers but not on the general outcome, not with these margins. As for the latest Gallup, Obama's job approval rating is back at 52% for the first time since bin Laden's death (May 2011). No doubt, that's a temporary bounce from the DNC and today's job report won't help, but as Gallup notes, Romney saw little or no bounce from the RNC. Meanwhile, nothing is happening on any front to suggest as Root does to justify his refrain that Obama has nowhere to go but down. He could just as well hold his own, and that will be more than enough to win.
ReplyDelete