Yesterday, I told you that during the first nine months of 2010, there was a whopping 145% increase in attempted burglaries over the same period in 2009. This is according to the Pa State Police Uniform Crime Reporting System. One of my readers, Bill, asks if this is really such a big deal, especially if it went from something like 5 to 14. He wants the actual numbers, and that's a fair point.Before doing that, I should point out that the data compiled by the PSP is "subject to continual edit, and should not be considered complete until the Annual Report is compiled." It is very possible that the final numbers will be a lot different as data is entered into the system. Bethlehem, for example, may actually see a decrease in crime during 2010 once the final report is compiled. But it does not look that way now. Through September, here is how 2009 compares to 2010 in the LV's three cities:
Allentown: Known offenses have dropped 3%, from 11,319 to 10,980. Attempted burglaries have increased 18.5%, from 124 to 147.
Bethlehem: Known offenses have increased 4.18%, from 4,929 to 5,135. Attempted burglaries have skyrocketed 145%, from 11 to 27.
Easton: Known offenses have dropped 9.2%, from 3,917 to 3,558. Attempted burglaries have dropped 14.2%, from 7 to 6.
Mayor Callahan, in an effort to stamp out crime in Bethlehem, has decided to augment the mounted police unit with a few giraffes.
Thanks for posting this Bernie. I live in Allentown, where Burglary rates are higher than Bethlehem. I do think that every attempted Burglary is serious, however from strictly a numbers perspective, Bethlehem has a much lower rate when you consider the sizes of the cities. I would love to see significant reductions in such crimes everywhere.
ReplyDeleteCan you post crime stats for bedroom community Emmaus?
ReplyDeleteLooking at the figures, it appears that Bethlehem's crime wave (or at least a significant portion of it) may be due to the presence of a single gang or group. When I read the Mcall recently, the police suspect a criminal gang was behind most of the recent hold-ups. Not to minimize the numbers, but I don't think it's accurate to describe it as due to widespread criminal activity.
ReplyDelete"Allentown: Known offenses have dropped 3%, from 11,319 to 10,980. Attempted burglaries have increased 18.5%, from 124 to 147.
ReplyDeleteBethlehem: Known offenses have increased 4.18%, from 4,929 to 5,135. Attempted burglaries have skyrocketed 145%, from 11 to 27."
I'm confused. Bethlehem has roughly 80% of Allentown's population yet 50% fewer total crimes and about 75% fewer burglaries. So, while Bethlehem's crime increased from 2009-2010 while Allentown's dropped, Bethlehem is still far safer. Far safer. It's not even close. By any reasonable standard, Allentown still leads in urban crime.
What were the biggest changes in Bethlehem's police department in 2009-2010? Didn't the police commissioner leave? The casinos are a possible explanation.
Re: Emmaus- the borough of emmaus has information, but lower macungie, without a police department, does not report anything as a municipality. that's where the biggest segment of Emmaus' bedroom community is located.
Bethlehem only has approx 65% of Allentown's population.
ReplyDeleteIt's going down the tubes fast, I live here. I think it's actually worse. It's no secret the BPD has hidden crime here for years. Who knows what the actual numbers are.
Bill, I agree that the numbers are more important than the percentages and thank you for noting that yesterday.
ReplyDelete"Not to minimize the numbers, but I don't think it's accurate to describe it as due to widespread criminal activity."
ReplyDeleteFair point, and I have heard, too, that one gang may be behind all of this.
" Bethlehem is still far safer. Far safer. It's not even close. By any reasonable standard, Allentown still leads in urban crime."
ReplyDeleteTrue, and that's why the numers are important, so you can make that connection. The percentages show a trend. If this holds, Bethlehem will catch A-town eventually.
Bernie -
ReplyDeleteI remain suspicious of most of the crime stats coming from Allentown, other than those that are well-publicized and easily verifiable, such as homicides.
A few years ago, Allentown made a well-publicized change in how it would respond to crimes. Officers would not respond to some, while others would be given a lower priority and it would take much longer to get an officer on scene.
Not surprisingly, the crime numbers started dropping shortly thereafter. I can't say that it is because of an overt effort to mis-report crimes or give it them a lesser classification. Perhaps it is that many people simply don't report some of the "lesser" crimes because they know the response will be slow or non-existent.
In any event, my personal experience in the city and those who I talk to that live there is that crime is not decreasing, despite the constant propaganda from City Hall claiming otherwise.
crime is usually reported as number of incidents per 1,000, 10,000 or the fbi uses 100,000
ReplyDeletelooking at the three cities rate for crime per 1,000:
A town 10.29
Beth 7.19
East 13.54
the fbi cautions against ranking. crime rates need to be viewed by type-violent, rape, murder, aggravated assault, robbery, auto theft
Just ask yourself this question: What evening would you feel safe walking in downtown Allentown versus downtown Bethlehem? I wouldn't go near downtown Allentown. There is a positive population in downtown Bethlehem.
ReplyDeleteagreed.
ReplyDeleteBernie,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like there are some different numbers here in a MC Article.
http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-bethlehem-burglaries-street-crime-20110111,0,7448134.story
Yea Bernie, your numbers are way off.
ReplyDeleteThey are what they are. I checked several times over two or three days.
ReplyDeleteMy report here is thru September. The MC is thru the end of the year. That data was unavailable when I did my report thru September, which is accurate.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the PSP data, attempted burglaries with forcible entry are up 90.48%. Actual forcible burglaries are up 32.04%.
Crime itself is up by 6.27%.
In contrast, crime is down nearly twenty per cent in Easton and 10.4% in Allentown.
Bethlehem is moving in the wrong direction.
The MC data is the same data I am using.
Thanks for the clarification, Bernie.
ReplyDelete