Two weeks ago, The Morning Call reported a supposed 23% jump in Lehigh Valley home sales in March, relying exclusively on information supplied by realtors. Not only was there a big jump, but the reason was supposedly a tax credit for first time home buyers.Whenever I read what really amount to an attempt to create a buzz by realtors, I start going into a slow burn. You see, the job I actually get paid for is my work as a title searcher. I know, from first hand experience, that things are very bad. I know several title agents who've gone out of business. Others have taken part-time jobs to help pay the bills. For reasons that elude me, The Morning Call makes no effort to check the information supplied by realtors. In fact, it recently misrepresented Lehigh County mortgages as deed transfers. Since I have access to all the Northampton County records, I've decided to keep track myself, and report to you monthly.
Over the past five years, Northampton County's real estate transfers have actually declined forty-six per cent. In March, there really was a modest gain of real estate transfers. But it's only 10% more than over the same period in 2009, not the 23% spike claimed in The Morning Call. What the paper also fails to note is that, even with this increase, it's still 22% below the average March over the past 14 years.
How did we do in April? Once again, it's a mixed bag.
500 deeds were transferred this April. The good news is that is a modest 6% increase over the same period in 2009, but the bad news is that it's 28% below the 694 deed average over the past 14 years.
Another piece of bad news is that 28 of these 500 deed transfers, or 5.6%, were Sheriff Sales resulting from foreclosures.
Below are April's deed transfers over the last 14 years. 2010 - 500 deeds; 2009 - 471 deeds; 2008 - 643 deeds; 2007 - 676 deeds; 2006 - 752 deeds; 2005 - 819 deeds; 2004 - 833 deeds; 2003 - 816 deeds; 2002 - 838 deeds; 2001 - 700 deeds; 2000 - 744 deeds; 1999- 654 deeds; 1998 - 625 deeds; 1997 - 648 deeds.
It is truly a tragedy that County Executive John Stoffa has brought Northampton county to an all time low. His misguided inept leadership has taken the County into economic armageddon.
ReplyDeleteCuckoo.
ReplyDeleteBernie,
ReplyDeleteThis is all way to common in today’s media world. When I was younger I remember people saying “I read it in the paper” as proof of veracity. That would draw only a laugh these days yet they wonder why their sales continue to slump.
Scott Armstrong
Great job, Bernie chasing this story and revealing that the Mcall is little more than a conduit for local realtors' propoganda.
ReplyDeleteThe local housing market is going through a deflationary period, with no clear end in sight. It's not that people who purchased homes in the last 5 yrs. don't want to sell, they CANNOT sell because the home is worth either: a) less than what they paid for it; or b) less than what they owe on it. Added to the problem is the fact that bank don't want to foreclose, they CANNOT foreclose because adding the homes to the bank's balance sheet would cause massive losses.
At some point, we will start to see whole communities (particularly high density condo / townhome communities) fail en masse. HOAs will not be able to operate when 10%+ of their members cannot pay their assessments. On a large scale, the threat of an HOA foreclosing on a unit to collect unpaid assessments becomes quite an empty one when the unit itself is worthless.
For reasons that elude me, The Morning Call makes no effort to check...
ReplyDeleteBecause they get classified ads from REALTORS. This week an online reader pointed out the errors and omissions in a Call story vs. Channel 69's. Huge!
Ty,
ReplyDeleteAnother problem is lost jobs. Even when rates are good, a person worried about his job security is unlikely to buy. Some settlements have cancelled bc the buyers were laid off after signing the agreement of sale.
our regional economy was grown in the 1990's and early 2000's through massive real estate investment. with most of that investment now dried up, our regional economy is stressed. We have reason to worry, not just about the homeowners who lost value in their homes, but also in the health of our region.
ReplyDeletewe need to refocus our regional economy on those economic engines that produce wealth for a region. We have the universities, high-tech research companies and location to make this possible. Now we need to start making decisions that capitalize on them, rather than diluting them.
Geoff
Realtors are marketers. They don't care about facts.
ReplyDeleteThey care about the sale.
Realtors are the least informed about municipal government,zoning,planning, local economy and things that matter to the homebuyer.
But...they do know that those countertops are corian.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteBut...they do know that those countertops are corian.
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Is that North or South Coria?
:)
You must be a realtor.
ReplyDeleteThis lull in development is GOOD! Its about time the unchecked NJ migration into PA has stopped. Its good that we can take a breather. Too bad all these local government types did not forecast or plan for this lull, hence the need to increase taxes etc... If we live within our means, we will be ok.
ReplyDeleteET's reporting that sales are up 26%..yea..26% of zero..is ZERO!
ReplyDelete