Mayor Pawlowski and his cronies dined last Thursday at Johnny Mañana's (that's with a ñ, damn it!). Maybe he even left a tip this time. All the beautiful people were there, including "many of the leaders of the downtown renaissance."I'll bet they didn't walk.
I'll also lay odds that few Allentown cops were at this fundraiser. They were a little busy, dealing with two, separate shootings that have left one person dead and three others wounded.
Little things like that make me question the mayor's claim that his pitifully understaffed police department has still managed to take a "bite out of crime." He claims crime has dropped 9 per cent on the basis of statistics compiled by the state police. In a strangely vague editorial, The Morning Call concludes the "numbers themselves are encouraging."
Actually, they aren't. I've looked at the data. You can track crime just about anywhere in Pennsylvania with this useful link, all the way back to the year 2000. On the basis of what I see, reporters who joke they're a "little nervous to head outside for their afternoon coffee break" should chip in and buy a coffeemaker.
Here's the numbers, year by year, from 2000.
2000 - 17,445 offenses, 9 homicides, 37 rapes
2001 - 17,277 offenses, 9 homicides, 40 rapes
2002 - 17,297 offenses, 9 homicides, 49 rapes
2003 - 18,025 offenses, 12 homicides, 46 rapes
2004 - 18,304 offenses, 11 homicides, 48 rapes
2005 - 18,366 offenses, 21 homicides, 39 rapes
2006 - 19,072 offenses, 17 homicides, 43 rapes
2007 - 17,381 offenses, 21 homicides, 30 rapes
Average - 17,895 offenses, 14 homicides, 41 rapes
On the basis of this 8 year average, this is just a 0.02% decrease, statistically insignificant. Homicides, the most serious and violent offenses, are still alarmingly high, 50% higher than the 8 year average. Any claim that violent crime has diminished is simply ridiculous - the raw data for the most violent offense of all defies that conclusion. The most promising area is a decrease in the number of forcible rapes, about 25% below the 8 year average.
It's no secret that Allentown police numbers are expected to fall drastically again this and next year. When the police staffing fell in 2006, that's when the numbers jumped up, a thousand crimes higher than the eight year average. If Mayor Pawlowski fails to take steps to replenish Allentown's police force, those numbers will jump again.
One factor not considered when Mayor Pawlowski tooted his horn is Allentown's declining population. Between 2000 and 2003, Allentown experienced a 0.6% population drop. Easton lost 0.3% of its people over the same period, while Bethlehem has experienced an increase of 1.7%.
Easton's mayor knows he has a crime problem, and guess what? He's actually doing something about it. Sal Panto is biting the bullet and beefing up his police force. More of them are walking beats, too.
Mayor Ed, why don't you give Mayor Sal a call?
Bernie -
ReplyDeleteGood post.
I have been referring to that site too. I posted a couple of weeks ago, comparing Allentown's crime rate with other cities (the discussion at that time had to do with defacto segregation).
Allentown's slipping away, I'm afraid. The absolute worst thing that can happen to a heavily urbanized, increasingly poor, 40% minority city is for its police force to fail for some reason. They call it the thin blue line for a reason. At full strength, law abiding citizens have only their police professionals between them and crime. If the police are stretched too thin, demoralized, or in A-town's case, have their numbers drastically cut, crime takes a foothold and we have what we have in the Queen City.
Successful, livable cities understand this. Then there's Allentown.
FYI . . .
ReplyDeleteAllentown's population is not decreasing by a long shot.
That decrease you state is most likely from the census bureau which compiles estimates based on births deaths, construction, and demolition permits. It does not take into account large families moving in and replacing the one or two elderly people who have lived in the home before.
It was predicted that Allentown's population would decline in 1990 and 2000 but when the census was actually completed the city had grown significantly. It is most likely that will be the case again in 2010.
Susan, You are right. I am relying on census bureau data. I think we need to know the actual population numbers before we can draw meaningful conclusions.
ReplyDeleteThe trend in Easton appears to be the one that is most disturbing, but Panto has just added officers there and I'll lay odds that will make a big difference.
Susan -
ReplyDeleteAllentown's relatively stable population (so far) runs contrary to what we have seen in most cities since 1950. Althought the total population has not declined, the demographics have changed. Allentown is poorer and has a greater percentage of minorities. In many cities, people flee the city and no one takes their place.; in Allentown, apparently, people flee, but their places are taken by more minorities, more poor people, more people from NY/NJ. That's the way it looks.
Where do the fleeing folks go? It's anyone's guess, but look at PA as an example. The total population since 1950 has increased, ever so slightly, while most PA city populations have been halved. One might say that people flee the conditions of the cities, but do not necessarily leave PA. Maybe Allentown's fleeing folks go to Lehigh Valley suburbs, small towns.
Bernie is correct - regargless of whether it results in a population decline or not, Allentown's crime/quality of life issues better be placed on the front burner and soon, or we will have a Chester, Camden, Scranton in our back yard.
And there is ample evidence to show that once a city slides into this abyss, it's a long way up and out of it.
Mayor P. needs to recognize this and soon!
Good job Bernie. Those statistics you present are very clear. Is there any way to estimate how much crime goes unreported?
ReplyDeleteThere were gunshots fired early this morning (5:15) and it turns out they came from a bar at 13th and Chew. They were reported and there is a story at mcall.com. I can sometimes hear the resounding shots from my house because we are up on a hill.
We have a very powerful (and very popular, I understand) District Attorney here in Lehigh County, a Republican, DA James B. Martin.
ReplyDeleteMr. Martin is so powerful, and so popular, no Democrat even tried to run against him in the 2003 and 2007 elections.
Question/Suggestion: Could Mr. Martin get our local gang members and criminals to be as terrified of him as our local Democrats are?
A bit off topic.....but....I was listening to my scanner Sunday night after the Super Bowl expecting some rowdy Giants fans to cause some problems with their celebrating.
ReplyDeleteThere was an AFD call for smoke coming out of Outten Chevrolet at 17& Tilghman. They dispatched 2 trucks to investigate.After getting to the scene and after 10 minutes of "investigating" and being unable to reach somebody to let them in the building, they figured it was a malfunctioning oil burner.No big deal. there was NO fire.
They decided to break in to make sure but before doing so the brilliant fire fighter in charge decided to call for a " full box" meaning 2 more trucks and the fire chief had to RACE to the scene with lights and sirens a full 15 minutes after initally getting there and realizing it was a minor problem.
Now you have 4 trucks and 1 chief in his SUV to investigate "smoke". Now this isn't crime related but if the Allentown firemen cannot decipher a minor problem from a major one, look at some of the 'genuises" the mayor has to deal with. So called professionals who WASTE city resources on minor calls.The EXTRA 3 vehicles turned around and headed back right after getting on scene. What a waste.
To make things worse at the scene this same fireman stumbled onto a fight between 2 people near the scene.He told the dispatcher he'd get back to her if EMS was needed.He NEVER did and when the dispatcher double checked with him a few minutes later.......ah never mind....I'm starting to sound like angry man Villa. I guess these people are better at fighting crime than the Fairgrounds Police aka Lehigh Law Enforcement.Has anybody ever heard them on the scanner???? Thank God THEY are not protecting our city.
Hey Villa why dont you run for DA and/or start your own newspaper if you have all the answers? Better yey, if you hate TMC so much....just dont read it there genius.
ReplyDeleteCOPS FLEECE, DEFRAUD, AND SWINDLE THE AMERICAN TAX PAYER.
ReplyDeleteThe average total gross salary for a cop for 20 years employment is $1.6 million, the cops average 45 years pensions is $22.4 millions. The average worker salary with similar educations and qualification earns $16.60 per hour, and in 40 years earns $3.3 millions. Average worker earns twice as much but has to work twice as long into his physical declining active years. He is still working while the cop is enjoying his pension in an active fun fill environment. The cops total pension is $22.4 million which he spends in his active years, while the worker pension of only $7.5 million is spend in his less active years. The cops works half the number of years but, receive three times (3x) greater pensions to spend in some of their best years of their lives.
Take a minute to let that sink in. WOW The average workers through his income taxes pays for the cops salaries and pensions.
Who is greater crook the cops who are stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from the naive hard working tax payer or some this comparative minor thief, drug dealer. Crooked scumbag cops want to conceal his scandalous horrendous stick up of American workers. Cops proudly fleeces, defrauds, and swindles the American tax payer.
This compounding affect of small annually increases resulted in large amounts in the stated times frames. The average worker has to compete with other workers throughout the world, but not so the greedy cops. To reduce police wages municipalities should employee foreigners to police us, such as Indians, they speak the King' English and there laws and judicial system are similar to ours. They will perform a better job at a much lower cost. It took about 30 seconds for my calculation but the city of Allentown has failed to provide the public with it unfunded police pensions liabilities, which could be in the billions. If this assumption is correct the city's bonds will be cheaper than toilet paper. The police are stealing from the Allentown tax payer and property owners. And forget the $8 millions law suit created by Guth the criminal cop on patrol. These figure fail to include police support equipment, vehicles, insurance, law suit insurance, clerical personnel, which will easily double the cost.
In announcing his run for a third term as Lehigh County District Attorney (Morning Gall, 2/3/07, B6), DA Jim Martin, who The Morning Gall cited as the "county's chief law enforcement officer" is quoted as saying, "in law enforcement, I trump the mayor and I trump the [police] chief."
ReplyDeleteSo while I'm not looking to get Mayor Pawlowski off the hook when it comes to his unfulfilled campaign strategies to fight crime in Allentown, isn't this, to some degree, more 'trumper' DA Jim Martin's job?
He says it is.
Q. Would anyone (i.e., somebody other than a quivering-in-Martin's-presence local Democratic Party leader) be interested in inviting DA Jim Martin to participate in a televised Town Hall Question & Answer session about runaway crime and law enforcement in Allentown? It would be a forum where concerned and informed citizens could address DA Martin and ask questions.
I believe the citizens of the county would be "well-served" by Mr. Martin's "effective leadership" at an event like this, to quote Mr. Martin himself (Morning Gall, 2/3/07, B6).
And if there's no Porn at Parkland happening that evening (and no puppies in distress somewhere), I'll bet The Morning Gall could maybe even be persuaded to attend, too ...
Anon 11:12,
ReplyDeleteI have the greatest respect and admiration for people who puts their lives on the line every day to keep the streets safe. There is no way we can ever pay them enough. I can criticize a cop with the best of them, but I will always wave when I see one. I have known many in my life, and they are for the most part above reproach.
Re: "inviting DA Jim Martin to participate in a televised Town Hall Question & Answer session about runaway crime and law enforcement in Allentown"
ReplyDeleteAmong the several achievements (from the previous 9 years) cited by DA Jim Martin in announcing his bid for a third term as Lehigh County District Attorney were these two items (Morning Gall, 2/3/07, B6) ...
* Martin has partnered with the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania [Patrick Meehan] in "various crime-fighting programs."
* Martin formed a county task force to help Allentown police investigate a rash of homicides.
As Moderator (I'm volunteering) of this televised Q & A sesh with DA Jim Martin, I'd ask for a detailed progress report on these two "achievements."
Bernie O'Hare said...Anon 11:12,
ReplyDelete...they are for the most part above reproach.
You should just treat them as anybody
else Bernie; no more no less. As a community we all would be better
PSYCHO COPS Strip Search
Innocent Woman
Some offtopic comments containing personal attacks have been posted. I am deleting them. The topic at hand is A-town'c crime data.
ReplyDeleteRe: "Hey Villa ... if you hate TMC so much....just dont read it there genius."
ReplyDeleteAnon 10:22 am: FYI, I wouldn't be allowed to read TMC "there" because TMC's Tribune NYC attorney, one Ms. Kay Murray, has e-informed me that I will be escorted off the property by Morning Call Security if I try to enter TMC's building without an appointment. Yep. That's how a-scared of questions, dissent, and articulation TMC is. I'm banned from the building. So I couldn't read TMC "there." I recently canceled by MC subscription. Now I read it online for free.
So villa - Why are you banned from the MC? Some context would be useful in your posts.
ReplyDelete"So villa - Why are you banned from the MC? Some context would be useful in your posts."
ReplyDeleteSure thing, here ya go: I have 4 questions about a recent Lehigh County criminal case-- questions that Morning Call Investigations Editor Tim Darragh told me (over the course of three lengthy phone conversations with him) were 'excellent questions that deserve to be answered.'
Tim Darragh took my questions to his boss, MC Managing Editor Dave Erdman. And my 4 excellent questions appear to have died there on Erdman's desk. Or maybe in his vault.
TMC claims (in an e-mail to me) that they've gotten my 4 excellent questions answered (by the relevant parties) to their satisfaction.
But I have valid reason to believe this is not true; i.e., I know for a fact that TMC did not question all the relevant parties.
And since they're my questions, and they're 'excellent' questions, I believe TMC should share the 'answers' they got with me.
But they refuse.
So I politely phone and e-mail TMC requesting a meeting with Dave Erdman and he just ignores me. This has been going on since late September '07.
One day a coupla months ago I was in the neighborhood of TMC and I stopped in and asked at the front desk, and again, very politely, if Mr. Erdman would see me. "Five minutes." I was in the lobby. I made it clear to MC Security (who sorta swarmed me) that I didn't have an appointment and that if Mr. Erdman was busy that's okay I'll call again (on the phone) later and try to make an appointment.
Later that same evening I got an e-mail from TMC's parent company, the Tribune, via NYC attorney Kay Murray informing me that I would be escorted off TMC property by MC Security if I ever try to enter their building again without an appointment.
The appointment Dave Erdman won't give me.
"context"
ReplyDeleteI should mention that there was a witness to my being swarmed by MC Security that day I dropped in.
A Morning Call employee (who I am pals with) came through the front door and started smirking at the comedic (i.e., not threatening or loud or anything of that sort) scene that was playing out in front of him and the bemused expression on my face. As he walked by, he winked at me and said, genuinely, "keep up the good work, Bill."
I won't reveal who this MC employee is ... and I'm positive (in all that hub-bub) that The Morning Call's Keystone Cops won't remember him entering the building. So I don't fear any "layoff" reprisals against him.
However, I do have him as a witness to subpoena, if I need him, Morning Call lawyers, just so youse know.
Suffice it to say it wasn't Glenn Kranzley.
Bill...
ReplyDeleteThis is a line I've been repeating when it comes to TMC, and now I'm gonna say it to you.
Did you expect any less?
(Hi a.j.) Here's what I expect: I expect all the crooked colluding crony institutions in this town to be exposed and brought down.
ReplyDeleteAnd that it'll be fun doing it.
I'll do it ...
ReplyDelete"Q. Would anyone (i.e., somebody other than a quivering-in-Martin's-presence local Democratic Party leader) be interested in inviting DA Jim Martin to participate in a televised Town Hall Question & Answer session about runaway crime and law enforcement in Allentown? It would be a forum where concerned and informed citizens could address DA Martin and ask questions."
Yeah Right! Code for pro police state. Get Real.
ReplyDeleteBlogger Bill Villa said...
It would be a forum where concerned and informed citizens could address DA Martin and ask questions."
10:09 AM
"Yeah Right! Code for pro police state. Get Real."
ReplyDeleteI'm not following you. I meant it as code for "let's grill DA Jim Martin (with questions he can't answer) under hot TV lights."
Bob, we all feel for you and the pain in your life but every topic doesn't involve Jim Martin.
ReplyDeleteI can appreciate your feelings but ya gotta take it down a notch.
Anon 10:30, His name is Bill, and I appreciate the respectful way in which you relayed your concerns. In the past, i was not so respectful, and am sorry for that.
ReplyDeleteRe: "we all feel for you and the pain in your life but every topic doesn't involve Jim Martin. I can appreciate your feelings but ya gotta take it down a notch."
ReplyDeleteAnon 10:30, while I agree that 'every topic doesn't involve DA Jim Martin' and that I've been guilty in the past of hijacking a topic onto Jim Martin, I also believe that this post's topic ("Allentown's Crime Data: Facts, not Propaganda") was a highly appropriate forum to discuss our county's chief law enforcement officer.
Maybe this will help you to understand some things better. Here's why I'm 'after' DA Jim Martin:
... to spare future grieving family members the needlessly cruel and added agony of experiencing DA Jim Martin (the county's chief law enforcement officer) siding against their deceased loved one and in favor of the criminal defendant who killed him or her.
Unless he is stopped, DA Jim Martin will continue to fix DUI homicide cases for buddies.
He must be stopped.
Ditto any institution that is enabling him.
Now I'll take it down a notch.
Thanks for reading.