Pa. 7th Congressional Race and Prediction Markets

If you look at prediction markets like Polymarket, Bob Brooks is running away with the Democratic nomination in the Pa. 7th Congressional district currently held by Ryan Mackenzie.  Based on nearly $12,000 of bets, Brooks has a 69% chance of winning while other candidates are getting trounced. Ryan Crosswell is at 23%, Lamont McClure comes in at 8% while Carol Obando-Derstine gets a scant 2%.  But this is all nonsense and I'll tell you why. 

First, these prediction markets are highly susceptible to campaign insiders who will pour money into them to create the illusion that a candidate is running away with a race. In the Pa 7th, for example, Crosswell has dipped 27%, McClure has dropped 42% and Obando-Derstine is down 47% since betting started. This is just ridiculous. There is no way that voters move that dramatically. But people associated with campaigns do. It is clear that the Brooks and Croswell campaigns have spent some of the money they raised to create a false narrative.

Second, Obando-Derstine, the only woman in this race is predicted to have just a 2% chance of winning. Anyone who follows Democratic politics should know that there are many Democrats who will crawl through barbed wire to vote for a woman precisely because she is a woman. In the last municipal NorCo Council race, one woman was top vote getter despite getting no support from the trade unions. Another woman won despite mounting no campaign and spending no money. In this climate, it is absurd to suggest that Obando-Derstine has a mere 2%.

Third, Lamont McClure, a two-term NorCo Exec and before that, a long-time member of county council, is easily the most well-known of the four candidates. Until very recently, Brooks actually supported McClure. Croswell was a Republican prosecutor who never lived in the Lehigh Valley. Obando-Derstine had no involvement with the public whatsoever and was and remains relatively unknown. The only candidate that Democrats actually might know is McClure. To suggest he's running at 8% is preposterous. 

I can see why Congress is growing concerned about prediction markets. 

On top of everything else, Brooks' chances of winning are probably declining as negative stories begin to circulate about him. I've written about the way Brooks stiffed his in-laws over land and money they provided for him to build a home. He failed to repay a dime of the money they lent him, and his mother-in-law had to sue for a $130,000 judgment that Brooks refuses to pay. I've also told you about a lawsuit recently filed by Attorney David Dunn, claiming that Brooks engaged in subterfuge and possible fraud when he supposedly conveyed his interest in marital property to his current wife, while still refusing to repay his debt. I've also reported on his failure to list his judgment when he filed his financial disclosure. He's shady. 

These negative stories have been spreading to other media outlets, including Alternet, Spotlight Pa and Lehigh Valley News. A candidate with this kind of negative attention does not rise 20% in polling, but could rise in a prediction market when his own campaign does the betting. 

It's what I'd expect from a shady person.