tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post1495168352508940583..comments2024-03-28T12:57:02.380-04:00Comments on Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Baghdad Residents & General Zinni Agree: We Must StayBernie O'Harehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-32454092772521677872007-05-30T21:33:00.000-04:002007-05-30T21:33:00.000-04:00Anon 7:22,I've got to admit you nailed me pretty w...Anon 7:22,<BR/><BR/>I've got to admit you nailed me pretty well. Those arguments do look a little silly, don't they? <BR/><BR/>My chief concern is genocide and what happens to the whole region. Believe me, I never wanted us to be there in the first place. But extricating ourselves will not be easy. <BR/><BR/>Thanks for putting me in my place.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-17664212075037546382007-05-30T19:43:00.000-04:002007-05-30T19:43:00.000-04:00The people that primary want us there are the top ...The people that primary want us there are the top Iraqi politicians because they know that as soon as we leave they are going to be headed so they only thing they care about is their own assGreendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-44250860496276374892007-05-30T19:22:00.000-04:002007-05-30T19:22:00.000-04:00Responding to Bernie's post from last night (9:13)...Responding to Bernie's post from last night (9:13)<BR/>Your arguments boil down to:<BR/>1) We're America, we can do anything<BR/>2) Bush has got to get something right!<BR/>3) THe Iraqis don't want us there, but they also don't want us to leave (the fact that they believe we can do something doesn't mean we can)<BR/> and<BR/>4) General Zinni says that our presence decreases the violence.<BR/>Is it just me, or do arguments 1-3 seem pretty shaky?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-74528025810426922512007-05-30T10:28:00.000-04:002007-05-30T10:28:00.000-04:00no president no general in their Right mind would ...no president no general in their Right mind would advocate our continued involvement in Iraq. There is little chance of success of any kind and the only real result is the loss of more us troops. We let the Genie out of the bottle and we can't put it back in.Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-54460754658556550582007-05-30T10:22:00.002-04:002007-05-30T10:22:00.002-04:00and how many troops we will loseand how many troops we will loseGreendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-39258210198126611762007-05-30T10:22:00.001-04:002007-05-30T10:22:00.001-04:00i.e. the civil war is happening and nothing we do ...i.e. the civil war is happening and nothing we do will stop it there will be genocide whether we are there or not it's just a matter of how muchGreendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-22518826278867686172007-05-30T10:22:00.000-04:002007-05-30T10:22:00.000-04:00With that, I agree.With that, I agree.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-45506824909505956162007-05-30T10:19:00.000-04:002007-05-30T10:19:00.000-04:00Even if the coming "surge" in U.S. combat troops m...Even if the coming "surge" in U.S. combat troops manages to lower the rate of killing in Baghdad, very little in relevant historical experience or the facts of this case suggests that U.S. troops would not be stuck in Iraq for decades, keeping sectarian and factional power struggles at bay while fending off jihadist and nationalist attacks. The more likely scenario is that the Bush administration's commitment to the "success" of the Maliki government will make the United States passively complicit in a massive campaign of ethnic cleansing. Standing back to adopt a more evenhanded policy in the civil war already in progress is a more sensible and defensible course. To pursue it, the Bush administration or its successor would first have to give up on the idea that a few more U.S. brigades or a change in U.S. tactics will make for an Iraq that can, in President Bush's words, "govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself" once U.S. troops are gone.Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-64026694544783310202007-05-30T10:10:00.000-04:002007-05-30T10:10:00.000-04:00Greendog,You found it! Good for you. I don't belie...Greendog,<BR/><BR/>You found it! Good for you. I don't believe it's online. It paints a very bleak picture of hat's going on. I don't believe we need to be a military presence for ten years, just long enough to prevent a genocide or power vacuum. But we need to use diplomacy and work on infrastructure and do many other things we're not doing. It's a very bad situation and there are no easy answers.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-24056210459643517212007-05-30T10:01:00.000-04:002007-05-30T10:01:00.000-04:00Yes I read the article and you misread it. It says...Yes I read the article and you misread it. It says the average civil war lasts 10 yrs. <BR/><BR/>. Civil wars are rarely ended by stable power-sharing agreements. When they are, it typically takes combatants who are not highly factionalized and years of fighting to clarify the balance of power<BR/><BR/>Their average duration since 1945 has been about <B>ten years</B>, with half lasting more than seven years. Their long duration seems to result from the way in which most of these conflicts have been fought: namely, by rebel groups using guerrilla tactics, usually operating in rural regions of postcolonial countries with weak administrative, police, and military capabilitie<BR/><BR/>A similar scenario is already playing out in Iraq. Whether U.S. forces stay or go, Iraq south of the Kurdish areas will probably look more and more like Lebanon during its long civil war. Effective political authority will devolve to regions, cities, and even neighborhoods. After a period of ethnic cleansing and fighting to draw lines, an equilibrium with lower-level, more intermittent sectarian violence will set in, punctuated by larger campaigns financed and aided by foreign powers. Violence and exploitation within sects will most likely worsen, as the neighborhood militias and gangs that carried out the ethnic cleansing increasingly fight among themselves over turf, protection rackets, and trade. As in Lebanon, there will probably be a good deal of intervention by neighboring states -- especially Iran -- but it will not necessarily bring them great strategic gains. To the contrary, it may bring them a great deal of grief, just as it has the United States<BR/><BR/>Power-sharing agreements rarely work in large part because civil wars cause combatants to be organized in a way that produces mutually reinforcing fears and temptations: combatants are afraid that the other side will use force to grab power and at the same time are tempted to use force to grab power themselves.<BR/><BR/>The effective provision of security by an intervening power may even undermine the belief that the government could stand on its own without the third party's backing. U.S. military intervention in Iraq is thus unlikely to produce a government that can survive by itself whether the <B>troops stay ten more months or ten more years.</B>Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-66978491466401627882007-05-29T23:57:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:57:00.000-04:00Greendog, The Foreign Affairs article included abo...Greendog, The Foreign Affairs article included about 75 civil wars through the world. Usually, they do end with one side just totally blowing another out. But there is a middle grounbd when an intervention occurs, and in those cases there can be relative security after about 10 years. I'm sorry but I have no link to this article. I read it at B&N a few weeks ago.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-52086741130747367552007-05-29T23:38:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:38:00.000-04:00Since Iraq was a creation of the west. We continu...Since Iraq was a creation of the west. We continue to view the region from a colonial persspective that somehow with enough American willpower we will force an American type of country. It seems Sen. Bidens' belief that the existing 'nation' may end up as three nations with Americans in the region with hopefully the UN to maintain peackeeping. Keep in mind Bin Laden was very clear on his reason on attacking the U.S. he believed our troops in Saudi after the first war represented an insult to islam. I never thought I would see the tragedy of Vietnam twice in my life but here it is. At least in South Vietnam we had a government in place with its own Army. When we left we not only took out our troops we cut off all aid. Sadly I believe Vietnam had more prospects for peace then Iraq.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-18056033803056815652007-05-29T23:36:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:36:00.000-04:00I'm sick of the give it a chance nonsense. We have...I'm sick of the give it a chance nonsense. We have given it enough of chance. <BR/><BR/>Similar conflicts which similar conflicts? The bi-afrian war, India vs Pakistan?, Somalia, want me to continue???? <BR/><BR/>You don't stop these type of conflicts they eventually work themselves out on their own when once groups beats the other one into submissionGreendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-56940484954994420962007-05-29T23:29:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:29:00.000-04:00No Greendog. From the review of similar situations...No Greendog. From the review of similar situations done in Foreign Affairs magazine, this will take about 10 years. Zinni says 5 to 7. You say never. I say give it a chance.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-20774151487831731162007-05-29T23:28:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:28:00.000-04:00Greendogdem, you said:This is reality Sunnis in Ir...Greendogdem, you said:<BR/><I>This is reality Sunnis in Iraq hate Shi'a and sunnis hate Shi'a for good reasons. </I><BR/><BR/>I beg to differ. I think their reasons are ridiculous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-50107422291245336742007-05-29T23:25:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:25:00.000-04:00so you expect us to keep this up for the next 700 ...so you expect us to keep this up for the next 700 or 800 years. Till they work out their problems?Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-79676031889516046622007-05-29T23:21:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:21:00.000-04:00LVH/Greendog, Idealistic? Yes. Unrealisitic? Possi...LVH/Greendog, <BR/><BR/>Idealistic? Yes. Unrealisitic? Possibly. I don't want to accept what Greendog says is inevitable? True. <BR/><BR/>I think we're better than that. And by "we," I mean human beings, even those who happen to be Semitic. <BR/><BR/>I'm shanty Irish, and we've rolled around w/ the English for nearly 1,000 years. Those problems seem to be slowly going away.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-52391753045589299022007-05-29T23:13:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:13:00.000-04:00The only question is how many more American troops...The only question is how many more American troops are going to lose their lives before we leave.Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-23213809048682654822007-05-29T23:11:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:11:00.000-04:00no what I'm concern about is dealing with reality....no what I'm concern about is dealing with reality. We can not be the world's police the us military is not a police force.<BR/><BR/>When two groups of people intend to kill each other nothing is going to stop it. We can be there for 5 or 10 or 30 years. It will not matter as soon as we leave. They will kill each other. This is not racism this is reality, of the region and of every example of what is happening in history. <BR/><BR/>This is reality Sunnis in Iraq hate Shi'a and sunnis hate Shi'a for good reasons. Nothing we do is going to change this. In fact while we are there it's happening anyway. <BR/><BR/>Yes it will be worse but it's going to happen regardless. You simply don't want to accept this.Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-29313609634090410562007-05-29T23:09:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:09:00.000-04:00Bernie,I admit that I'm not as educated in Middle ...Bernie,<BR/><BR/>I admit that I'm not as educated in Middle Eastern politics as Greendogdem. My limited knowledge leads me to a pragmatic view of the situation: the Sunnis and the Shiites have been fighting for 1,400 years - since the death of Mohammed. The culture there is deeply ingrained and I don't see them changing.<BR/><BR/>I admire your position, but I think it's idealistic and unrealistic. I would fully support our troops being there if I felt that change could be effected, but sadly I don't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-38789667933420154122007-05-29T23:00:00.000-04:002007-05-29T23:00:00.000-04:00Greendog, Huh?? Sorry, dude, but I don't know what...Greendog, <BR/><BR/>Huh?? Sorry, dude, but I don't know what you're trying to say. My main concern is genocide. I don't think it bothers you because they're mostly Arabs, and you seem to have a dim view of that ethnic group. In my word, genocide is a bad thing, whether it's in Darfur or Iraq.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-68941379692593499942007-05-29T22:48:00.000-04:002007-05-29T22:48:00.000-04:00Just because you don't like the truth of the situa...Just because you don't like the truth of the situation doesn't make it true. It sounds more like your trying to force people into your own stereotype of social normality.Greendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-25541902071870866172007-05-29T22:33:00.000-04:002007-05-29T22:33:00.000-04:00Greendog,Thanks for stating why you feel you have ...Greendog,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for stating why you feel you have "a pretty good grasp of Middle Eastern history and politics." Frankly, I think you've stereotyped an entire population to fit preconceived notions. And your views evince a disregard for human life. It's almost as though you can't wait for them to kill each other. That's a little unsettling to me. Sorry.Bernie O'Harehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13756311150988957401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-14575185757163655122007-05-29T22:28:00.000-04:002007-05-29T22:28:00.000-04:00The slightest wrong statement wrong comment things...The slightest wrong statement wrong comment things we may see as complements are seen as uncivilized behavior. Everyday we keep our troops in Iraq is dangerous not just in the short term but in the long term. They won't tell you that you insulted them they will take punitive actions against you for your insultsGreendogdemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117939876985715602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9299655.post-68375379684589556252007-05-29T22:06:00.000-04:002007-05-29T22:06:00.000-04:00Greendog!What you've said is chilling and compelli...Greendog!<BR/><BR/>What you've said is chilling and compelling.<BR/><BR/>It also reminds me of what Eric Hoffer wrote:<BR/><BR/>"The true believer is the believer in total solutions, impatient with the fainthearted and quick to condemn their reluctance to pay the full cost for radical social change."<BR/><BR/>Fanatics fear compromise. Al Queda is an instrument of eternity and those who join it join for life. When times become unhinged, dying is merely a gesture, an act of make believe to these Islamic fanatics.<BR/><BR/>BTNPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com