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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Lehigh Valley Violent Crime: Perception v. Reality

According to the Lehigh Valley Crime Map, violent crime within the last month is pretty much limited to Allentown. Easton has had no violent crime. Bethlehem had one aggravated assault.

Allentown had nine violent crimes, from murders to a stabbing.

The claim that Allentown's crime problem is really just a "perception" problem, is bullshit.

Now what happens when half of Allentown's police force is diverted to provide security for out-of-towners on hockey nights?

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

I guess that dylight west ward shooting in January was a dream that the papers reported. Please. Easton is as frightening as Allentown at any point more than a block from the circle.

Bernie O'Hare said...

The statistics do not substantiate your bizarre, and politically motivated, claim. Of the three cities, Easton has been the safest for the past several years.

Anonymous said...

obviously whoever put these stats together doesn't read the papers or police blotters. just another ohare hard on hack job. just proves you can do anything you want with statistics.

Anonymous said...

Few who live in Easton will agree it's safer. What do I know. Born, raised, live there. Read the papers every day. Lots of cake and circuses in Easton. It is not a safe place, however. The gangs are out of control and Easton is a drug hub for those purged from NYC and Newark. Try walking around 10t and Lehigh or 7th and Pearl after dark.

Anonymous said...

From "City Rating.com":

Easton crime statistics report an overall downward trend in crime based on data from 11 years with violent crime decreasing and property crime decreasing. Based on this trend, the crime rate in Easton for 2012 is expected to be lower than in 2009.

The city violent crime rate for Easton in 2009 was higher than the national violent crime rate average by 22.4% and the city property crime rate in Easton was lower than the national property crime rate average by 4.72%.

In 2009 the city violent crime rate in Easton was higher than the violent crime rate in Pennsylvania by 38.13% and the city property crime rate in Easton was higher than the property crime rate in Pennsylvania by 31.39%
Allentown crime statistics report an overall upward trend in crime based on data from 11 years with violent crime increasing and property crime increasing. Based on this trend, the crime rate in Allentown for 2012 is expected to be higher than in 2009.

The city violent crime rate for Allentown in 2009 was higher than the national violent crime rate average by 62.51% and the city property crime rate in Allentown was higher than the national property crime rate average by 62.53%.

In 2009 the city violent crime rate in Allentown was higher than the violent crime rate in Pennsylvania by 83.39% and the city property crime rate in Allentown was higher than the property crime rate in Pennsylvania by 124.13%
Bethlehem crime statistics report an overall downward trend in crime based on data from 10 years with violent crime increasing and property crime decreasing. Based on this trend, the crime rate in Bethlehem for 2012 is expected to be lower than in 2009.

The city violent crime rate for Bethlehem in 2009 was lower than the national violent crime rate average by 29.51% and the city property crime rate in Bethlehem was lower than the national property crime rate average by 11.45%.

In 2009 the city violent crime rate in Bethlehem was lower than the violent crime rate in Pennsylvania by 20.45% and the city property crime rate in Bethlehem was higher than the property crime rate in Pennsylvania by 22.11%

VOR

Anonymous said...

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Bernie, you are the victim of misread statistics. The crime map that you tout are incidents published in the Morning Call. We all know that the Morning Call closed their Easton office and minimized their reporting in Easton.

A recent crime: A man was arrested for a stabbing in the city on Butler Street on Feb 24. See the Express Times. Understandably believing that Easton is violent crime free is a stretch. It may be better. But, it is much like feeling safe swimming in a pool with one shark in comparison to swimming in a pool with three sharks.

Honesty in Blogging.

Bernie O'Hare said...

VOR, i have followed crime statistics collected by the PSP. CityData is an outdated site. Use the Pa. State Police Crime Reporting System. As a word of caution, try not to get too current bc some areas lag behind others.

If you look, you will see that that the crime rate in Easton has consistently dropped since 2008.

In Bethlehem, same thing.

You can break it down by types of crime and get very accurate information.

Anonymous said...

A couple of comments:

Your point of perception v reality is a false conflict. Reality is that crime in Allentown is high, higher than most other communities in the commonwealth. That said, the perception is that it is higher than it really is. I've lived downtown for 8 years. I don't witness many crimes. They happen, as is evident in the papers and in conversations with my neighbors, but the perception is that there is a crime on the block every night. Reality is that there is a crime 2-3 times a week. The perception is much higher than that reality. it is still high. make no mistake, it is is high. but it isn't as high as is perceived. That is the case for Easton, Bethlehem and any other place where we discuss crime.

"If you look, you will see that that the crime rate in Easton has consistently dropped since 2008.

In Bethlehem, same thing."

Thank you for pointing that out. Crime across the board has dropped in these two communities. That is also the case in Allentown. Yes, allentown is higher and you will quickly point out categories where crime increased. On the whole, crime is down in all three communities since 2008.

Why? I'm sure people are more interested in assigning political blame/reward. The reality is that that police are learning to work together more effectively. It has nothing to do with any of the mayors or politicians. The 222 crime task force, integration of more technology (camera's, better networked computer systems) and simply picking up the phone... it all adds up.

So, the reality of crime is high in each of these communities. The perception is that crime is even higher. All three cities are making strides. They have more strides to make, but generally speaking, progress needs to be noted. The state police data is fascinating.

Anonymous said...

Why do you hate Allentown?



Allentown Democrat Voter

Anonymous said...

Bernie- Thanks.


Regardless which stats we refer to, I think it is commonly perceived that in terms of "feeling safe" the rankings are:

1- Bethlehem
2- Easton
3- Beirut
4- Allentown


VOR

Anonymous said...

Bernie keep on beating you elect Sal Panto drums. No one wants a Lehigh Valley city mayor as County Executive. Sorry.

Anonymous said...

Keep in mind that most of these serious crimes are committed by those involved in and against those involved in criminal activity.

Anonymous said...

obviously never been on the south side of bethlehem

Anonymous said...

Bernie,

This morning three very young boys were smoking pot in the alley behind my house. Two weeks ago there was an after school slashing/stabbing across the street, the second one in 6 weeks. last week police had to be called because a student with a weapon, (black jack) was chasing another student who threw a large rock at a van...I could go on.Those of us who live in the downtown are like the toads who refuse to jump out of the slowly warming water. The truth is there is a lot more crime then what is reported, simply because many people don't bother to report it any more.

Scott Armstrong

Anonymous said...

Bernie, I agree with Armstrong,why bother to report crime.My own personnel view of dropping crime statistics is increasing fear of government makes victims reluctant to report crimes.If I owed money on a parking ticket or two I would'nt report a crime. 'Southern Man'

Bill said...

I also live in Allentown and agree with Scott's point. The reporting of crime is down, but the change in policy several years ago where police stopped responding to the complainant several years ago is a major factor. Why bother calling in a crime when there is no evidence of a response? Also, the police changed the way that they report crime in our area, they now report the number of types of crimes in a large area and no longer report specific crimes that occur on which streets and on which days. It seems that actual crime rates our being made more difficult to track by the citizenry.

Anonymous said...

Why do people still think of an Easton of old. While they haven't visited here in many years they still seem to think they know. Well the reality is that Easton is a much safer city than it was 4 or 5 years ago and sorry but in Easton alot has to do with 2 people and the new attitude police department that these two men have created. Chief Palmer and our Mayor have done a great job.

You naysayers can say all you want but Panto has provided an additional 11 police officers, better equipment, cameras, etc. I will never forget how Panto camew in 2008 and declared war on the gangs and drugs. There were raids like every week. There were other things too but mostly it was a solid police department that took pride in making a safer city.

Anonymous said...

Wow, you government job seekers keep pushing the Panto job fair. Yet Butler and Ferry streets are still a gangbangers Nirvana. The place has more drug deals everyday then a pharmacy.

I realize you want to promote Sal Panto but no one believes the west end of town is better today then it was years ago.

The area is mostly a slum of carved up apartments and rampant poverty. Please do your campaigning some where, where people don't know the truth.