Monday, July 28, 2008

Lehigh Valley's Urban Police - The Raw Numbers




















































































































































City

Allentown

Bethlehem

Easton

2000: Crimes Reported

17,445

6,516

3,757

2000: Crimes Cleared

13,205

3,016

664

2000: Clearance rate

76%

46%

18%

2001: Crimes Reported

17,277

6,729

4,271

2001: Crimes Cleared

13,035

3,506

801

2001: Clearance rate

75%

52%

19%

2002: Crimes Reported

17,297

6,763

4,567

2002: Crimes Cleared

13,385

3,468

945

2002: Clearance rate

77%

51%

19%

2003: Crimes Reported

18,025

6,301

5,386

2003: Crimes Cleared

12,587

3,241

1,030

2003: Clearance rate

70%

51%

19%

2004: Crimes Reported

18,304

6,916

5,376

2004: Crimes Cleared

7,194

3,569

955

2004: Clearance rate

39%

52%

18%

2005: Crimes Reported

18,366

7,296

5,424

2005: Crimes Cleared

6,487

3,741

894

2005: Clearance rate

35%

51%

16%

2006: Crimes Reported

19,072

7,370

5,822

2006: Crimes Cleared

6,123

3,643

1,621

2006: Clearance rate

32%

49%

28%

2007: Crimes Reported

17,383

6,947

5,531

2007: Crimes Cleared

5,822

2,852

1,521

2007: Clearance rate

33%

41%

28%

Source: Pennsylania State Police.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bernie, if you do some trend analysis on these figures (year/year, 3yr and 5yr trends), Allentown, while still having by far the largest # of crimes reported, has done much better than either Bethlehem or Easton in terms of growth of crimes.

I know this is OT in regard to the clearance rates (where I agree w/ you, they're all bad) - but given some of the posts recently, I thought this was interesting.

The Banker

Bernie O'Hare said...

Banker,

The number of crimes reported has dropped in A-town, but I would expect that. When the clearance rate drops, that results in a larger criminal presence. They are certainly not going to reportt crime. And innocent citizens develop a "why bother?" attitude. If polioce refuse to do anything, which was the experience of Morning Call carrier Mr. A, why even bother masking a report? If police don't even send a cruiser car, why call?

This leads to a lower crime rate, bbut it is false.

I know a lady with a nail shop on Hamilton Street. I can think of two crimes in the lkast two weeks, just involving her shop. In the first instance, someone stole her money. In the second instance, a woman getting her nails done decided to go to a bearby MAC machine to get her nails done. That was Friday or Saturday. While there, and in the middle of the day, she was robbed of $40 by 2 guys. Things are bad.

Anonymous said...

"And innocent citizens develop a "why bother?" attitude."

Anonymous said...

"And innocent citizens develop a "why bother?" attitude."

Can you site a source for this?

Bernie O'Hare said...

Can you site a source for this?

If the crime rate is going down, but the police are solving fewer crimes, it stands to reason that disgusted citizens are making fewer reports. That's, incidentally, how the murder rate can go up. Innocent citizens, as well as thugs, are less likely to report crime. But a dead body is still a dead body.

You can't look at one statistic without looking at all of them. A-town's crime rate has droipped, but its clearance rate has dropped dramatically.

One expert believes emphasis on drug prosecutions may give criminals the impression they can get away with non drug crimes. He also notes that in "high crime" neighborhoods, people are most disgusted by the police.

I don't think it's a streetch to suggest that people who are disgusted will stop making reports.

Anonymous said...

No argument regarding Allentown's condition, but I do continue to be surprised at the drop in # of crimes in Alelntown given how bad it is. I wonder how many crimes don't get reported?

The increases in Bethlehem and Easton were an eye-opener for me, that's as big a story as the condition of Allentown. Easton's police troubles have been well-publicized, what's going on in Bethlehem?

The Banker

Anonymous said...

I think that this should be noted fro what it is. An informed opinion of yours at best Bernie. Citing an opinion of you opinion really doesn't qualify anything as fact.

The crime rate is down in Allentown, significantly over the past few years.

Bernie O'Hare said...

True, the crime rate in A-town has dropped 0.02% over the past 8 years, as has the population. The success raye has gone down, too. In other words, the problem now appears to be worse than it was 8 years ago. I don't mean to point fingers at A-town. All the urban centers face problems. But it is foolish to whitewash the truth.

Anonymous said...

Allentown's population has not gone one person over the past 8 years. In reality the question is, how much has it gone up.

In both the 1990 and 2000 significant decreases in population were predicted in Allentown but at the end of the census, moderate and significant increase turned out to be the case.

The reason for the? Annual projections for population between the census are based on births, deaths, and building and demolition permits. No where in there does it address the increase in average number of inhabitants per home.

Given much of Allentown's large elderly population has passed on or moved into homes outside of the city in the past 5 years and been replaced by families with multiple kids, the population is likely to increase by 1000's when actually counted in 2010.